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Don't write oil's 'obituary', IEA says in long-term demand forecast

15 November 2017

"This is a continuation of the strong demand growth we are seeing in our short term oil market analysis", the report said.

Oil prices fell 2 percent on Tuesday, headed for a third straight daily decline, on forecasts for rising USA crude output and a gloomier outlook for global demand growth in a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Under the IEA's New Policies Scenario, based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions relative to emissions and climate change, the oil price should continue to rise toward $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s. The Paris-based watchdog casts doubt over the state of the sector, especially as a number of high-profile players such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc. and Total SA have reduced their exposure to Alberta.

Despite the cautious sentiment, traders said oil prices were unlikely to fall far, largely due to supply restrictions led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation, which have helped reduce excess stockpiles.

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The International Energy Agency said in its market report for November that recent trends toward balance were supported by lower production from OPEC members like Iraq and Venezuela, which may be temporary.

While the US exported 100 billion cubic metres of Canadian gas in 2005, that figure fell by over a fifth in 2016.

Overall global energy needs are seen rising more slowly than in the past, but are still projected to expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040.

"Asia's growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG (by 2040), with exports from the United States accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market", the IEA said.

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"Next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.

This sentiment comes in part on the back of rising United States oil output, which has grown by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million barrels per day (bpd).

The IEA also revised down its 2018 oil demand forecast for Brazil from 3.15 million bpd to 3.13 million bpd.

The U.S. shale surge could also mean an era of lower-for-longer oil prices.

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The International Energy Agency said the oil industry's hopes for a higher, stable crude prices trading between $50 to $60 a barrel could be dashed soon if the supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions pushing prices upward prove temporary.

Don't write oil's 'obituary', IEA says in long-term demand forecast