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Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude Oil Briefing

02 March 2018

Hedge funds and money managers upped their bullish wagers on US crude oil for the first time in four weeks, data showed on Friday.

Last week, the US Energy Information Administration said there was a surprise drop in oil reserves against a background of lower imports and higher exports.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery was down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $63.76 a barrel by 0532 GMT.

Yet, thanks to the shale resurgence, here we are-over the past few weeks, American crude oil production outstripped that of Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader and biggest exporter.

But while the Brent-WTI spread jumped over $7 per barrel between September and December, it has sharply narrowed more recently.

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The stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the USA currency more expensive for holders of other currencies.

He said, "The annual production of crude oil in months from January to March will be below the output caps exporting less than 7 million barrels per day".

Nevertheless, if U.S. crude exports were once again higher than expected, that could provide price support for oil futures, according to analysts.

The prices for oil grow at the expense of strict discipline Saudi Arabia, easing concerns about oversupply of oil in the United States and the disruption of supplies from Libya. However, there's even more oil, and more supply is expected ahead.

The lower freight costs afforded by the economies of scale of the VLCC cargo opens up the global market for US-produced crude oil.

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That doesn't mean USA crude exports will necessarily fall back to the old levels before a year ago, below 1 mb/d, for example. USA inventories have fallen almost a quarter over the last 12 months, or about 100 million barrels - the lowest in three years. Still, U.S. supply remains a threat, with the nation's rig count rising for a fifth week to the highest since April 2015.

"US crude output, up 1.3 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), will soon overtake Saudi Arabia and could catch Russian Federation by the end of the year", the IEA said two weeks ago.

Arab News quoted Mazrouei as saying that cooperation between oil producers including Russian Federation had reached levels that were "more than expected".

Consider this: in January 2017, USA crude oil production mounted to 8.82 million barrels per day.

Not only is the US boosting oil production, but it is also increasing its oil exports, including to the prized Asian market on which Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation have been competing for market share.

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Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude Oil Briefing