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Main » Oil market shrugs off rising threat to Iran deal: Kemp

Oil market shrugs off rising threat to Iran deal: Kemp

16 March 2018

Supply is still expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in the US, a huge figure, but unchanged from previous forecasts.

That said, gains were limited by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) projection that supply will overtake demand this year.

The exports were 21 percent lower than in January and 43 percent below the volume shipped in February of 2017. Crude oil exports in 2017 were almost double the level of exports in 2016.

This would lead to "a higher quarterly distribution throughout the year with a record-high level projected for the fourth quarter", OPEC said.

The report noted that world oil supply in February 2018 increased by 0.37 million barrel per day month-on-month to average 98.20 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.66 mb/d year-on-year, adding that preliminary non-OPEC oil supply in February, including OPEC NGLs, was up by 0.45 mb/d month-on-month and rose by 1.71 mb/d year-on-year to average 66.01 mb/d.

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Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. Although US production was lower than expected in December, there is no change to our overall 2017 number neither to our outlook for 2018 that expects crude output there to grow by 1.3 mb/d. On Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its forecast for the USA share of global oil production to rise by 130,000 b/d to an average of 5.72 million b/d in 2018.

Petroleum could be near the most significant low since Mid-June of previous year as crude oil and crude products will be tight as we kick off what I predict will be a record summer demand season.

Crude prices started on a weaker note, after a see-saw week of trading last week, as indications pointed to American shale output swelling.

It's not clear how this will inform OPEC's decision-making; US shale is still surging, keeping a lid on oil prices, regardless of the metric OPEC wants to use. In fact, the oil surplus only stood at 50 million barrels, while refined product supplies are actually in a deficit. The shockingly low level of new discoveries is the direct result of a dramatic fall in spending on exploration.

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China is the world's largest importer of commodities.

The supply cut's original aim was to shrink oil inventories in developed economies to their five-year average.

But since Opec expects demand this year to grow by only 1.62-million barrels a day, that would leave the market slightly oversupplied and may require more or longer supply restraint.

Traders of crude oil cargoes face a dilemma. S. crude inventories are not rising as much as expected during the spring season now starting, implying healthy demand, and from strong China data.

Output from major United States shale regions is expected to continue strong gains.

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Oil market shrugs off rising threat to Iran deal: Kemp