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Trillion-dollar deficits come roaring back under Trump

12 April 2018

After the passage of the tax cut bill and a dramatic increase in spending in the most recent budget legislation, the Congressional Budget Office has issued new projections on spending, growth and deficits that predict $1.5 trillion deficits and modest growth. The Congressional Budget Office says tax and spending bills will push the deficit to $804 billion this year and almost $1 trillion for 2019.

Between the lines: Republicans have spent almost a decade campaigning on fiscal restraint.

The CBO notes in its report that, if the tax cuts for lower income people are renewed by Democrats in the mid 2020's then the fiscal outlook will be much darker.

Donnelly said, "This report confirms my serious concerns about the ballooning deficit, which Speaker Ryan has said he wants to pay for through cuts to Medicare and Social Security, putting seniors and retirees at risk".

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"If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged, the federal budget deficit would grow substantially over the next few years", the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office wrote in its 10-year budget forecast, "with accumulating deficits driving debt held by the public to almost 100 percent of GDP by 2028". Faster growth is expected next year, as well. Growth will be primarily driven by business investment, consumer spending and federal spending.

What's more, as CBO explains, its figures very likely underestimate the size of the deficit. Yields move in the opposite direction from bond prices, rising when the prices of bonds paying fixed interest rates fall. It also raised its deficit forecast for the current year by $242 billion, to $804 billion. The total over the 10-year span beginning in 2017 was projected to be $9.4 trillion. The tax law is projected to add at least $1.5 trillion to the national debt over the next debate.

That review looked at the impact of the Trump legislation which slashed cutting taxes by $US1.5 trillion over 10 years, followed by a bill passed in March that lifts ceilings on discretionary spending over two years.

By 2028, the government will spend $7 trillion: $4.5 trillion of that on entitlements, $1.6 trillion on defense and domestic discretionary programs, and a staggering $915 billion on interest payments.

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"No one can say they didn't see this coming".

Analysts say the debt problems could get worse. "Now that it's upon us, those who have their heads buried in the sand are in for a rude awakening". All it will take are sizable tax increases.

He also warned against the Republicans' push for a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, saying it would tie policymakers' hands during economic downturns, preventing them from injecting any spending stimulus.

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Trillion-dollar deficits come roaring back under Trump