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OPEC meets Russian Federation and allies to agree oil output boost

24 June 2018

"We will reach capacity in the next 3 to 4 months", Scott Sheffield of Pioneer Natural Resources Co. said.

Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, had demanded the organization reject calls from Trump for an increase in oil supply, arguing that he had contributed to a recent rise in prices by imposing sanctions on Iran and fellow member Venezuela.

"Longer term, this is a bit of a win for consumers", said Jamie Webster, director of Boston Consulting Group's Center for Energy Impact.

The expectations of higher prices are encouraging news for U.S. shale drillers, who are envisioning a greater number of oil rigs to be commissioned in the second half of the year.

Crude oil prices rose almost 5% on Friday following the announcement that OPEC would add about 600,000 barrels a day to its members' production quotas. In practice, its combined output was even less due to production problems.

The newly proposed increase to production levels may simply help mitigate those recently displaced supplies.

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Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation on Thursday used a pre-OPEC meeting in the Austrian capital to float a proposal of bringing an extra one million barrels each day to the market.

The actual output increases set a bullish tone, as they came in below some of the highest figures that had been discussed prior to the meeting. He also noted "the USA capital market and the ability to get lots of money very quickly" were going to be key indicators of future shale oil activities outside the market mechanism known as "oil prices".

Meanwhile Riyadh, which cheered Washington's exit from the Iranian nuclear deal, is under pressure from its U.S. ally to open the spigots as Trump hopes for lower pump prices ahead of November's mid-term elections. "Need to keep prices down!"

I have always been of the opinion that the drop in Iranian supply would be much bigger than the 200,000 to 300,000 daily barrels that several analysts have been forecasting.

Not only do higher gas prices tend to encourage travelers to take shorter trips, they typically spend less on other goods and services in order to stretch their dollars as far as they can.

Earlier this week, Indian Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan urged the OPEC to move to responsible pricing of oil and gas, saying the current prices are posing a threat to fragile world economic growth. That means an effective redistribution of market share.

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Falling production in Venezuela and Libya, as well as the risk of lower output from Iran as a result of United States sanctions, have all increased market worries of a supply shortage.

Major producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - including Mexico and Kazakhstan - met ministers from the cartel on Saturday and endorsed a nominal output increase of 1 million barrels a day, said Ecuador's Minister of Hydrocarbons Carlos Perez.

"Zanganeh can go back to his country and say "I won", because we are keeping the original agreement unchanged".

"The lack of specificity is bullish for prices", said Joe McMonigle, senior energy analyst at Hedgeye Risk Management. Such an increase in production would likely only be gradual, leaving it on a path close to our base case 550 kb/d increase in 3Q18.

Crude prices surged yesterday following the vaguely worded Opec agreement. "It would not make sense if we allocated production to a country that can not produce it, so we avoided having allocations from that perspective", he said.

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OPEC meets Russian Federation and allies to agree oil output boost