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Russia-Saudi oil cooperation to bring stability to markets: RDIF's Dmitriev

28 June 2018

Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources Khalid Al Falih has said the oil production agreement reached over the weekend in Vienna at the 174th meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will see around 1mn extra barrels per day (bpd) added to the global market, according to multiple sources.

Brent crude futures fell 82 cents, or 1.1 percent, to settle at $74.73 a barrel.

"The expectation that we'll see more crude out of OPEC and that supplies in the USA will be tight because of the Syncrude outage... is going to keep the market on edge", said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group.

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Despite the increase, which is meant to stop the gap between global supply and demand from becoming too wide, analysts said global oil markets would likely remain relatively tight this year.

"With the global market pricing to pull crude out of the U.S., this loss of USA supplies will exacerbate the current global deficit, making the increase in OPEC production all the more required", Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

"With the global market pricing to pull crude out of the US, this loss of USA supplies will exacerbate the current global deficit, making the increase in OPEC production all the more required", the analysts wrote in the report.

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Al-Falih's assurance to keep the market in balance, backed by his Russian counterpart, came after Trump slammed Opec for artificially inflating prices, as well as more conventional lobbying by major oil buyers. Since then, the cartel has in fact managed to overshoot its production cut target following unexpected outages in countries such as Venezuela and Libya, contributing to the steep rise in oil prices. "Hope OPEC will increase output substantially".

Britain's Barclays bank said OPEC's and Russia's commitments would take "the market from a -0.2 million bpd deficit in H2 2018 to a 0.2 million bpd surplus".

Ms. Lundberg said Sunday that Crude Oil prices recently rose $3bbl after OPEC said it is limiting Oil production. However, the overall level remains just one rig short of the March 2015 high from the previous week.

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The market was also dealing with the outage at Syncrude Canada's 360,000 bpd oil sands facility near Fort McMurray, Alberta, which a spokeswoman confirmed will remain offline through July. We are turning bullish on oil prices as macro developments over the past six months have been positive.

Russia-Saudi oil cooperation to bring stability to markets: RDIF's Dmitriev