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Prepare for $90 oil after sanctions against Iran take effect

10 August 2018

The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was up 0.15 percent as of 9:22 a.m. EDT to $72.39 per barrel.

Many countries, including United States allies in Europe as well as China and India oppose the sanctions, but the USA government said it wants as many countries as possible to stop buying Iranian oil.

A greater commitment to USA crude may help shield India from supply disruptions when sanctions on oil aimed at curbing the Islamic republic's nuclear program begin in early November.

China's July crude oil imports recovered slightly in July after falling for the previous two months, but were still among the lowest this year due to a drop-off in demand from the country's smaller independent, or "teapot", refineries. By contrast, both Brent crude in London and West Texas Intermediate in NY are little changed this month. Tuesday's sanctions primarily hit Iran's ability to function in global financial markets.

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Gasoline exports edged up 75,000 b/d to 588,000 b/d, while distillate exports slipped 51,000 b/d to 1.23 million b/d.

"This tender is the first step toward future imports of US crude oil through term contracts", Sharma said in a phone interview on August 8.

"The report was negative for prices with the smaller-than-expected drawdown in crude oil inventories and the decent sized rise in refined product inventories", said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital Management in NY. While Saudi Arabia was said to cut production last month despite a pledge in June by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to add more barrels, Russian Federation said it has the capacity to lift output to a post-Soviet record.

A crude oil train moves past the loading rack at the Eighty-Eight Oil LLC's transloading facility in Ft. Exports averaged 1.85 million barrels a day last week and have a cumulative daily average for the year of 1.83 million barrels a day, a 140% increase over the year-ago export total.

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US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $69.21 barrel.

"If worst comes to worst and 1.5-2 million bpd (barrels per day) of Iranian disappears from the market. calculations will go out of the window and oil bears will have to brace themselves for a very rough ride", PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said. In addition to crude oil and liquified natural gas, other listed products include diesel, coal, chemicals, cars, steel products and medical equipment. Traders focused on the latest developments in the trade dispute between the United States and China, as oil prices resumed their decline.

Tuesday evening the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude inventories dropped by 6 million barrels in the week ending August 3.

State-run refiner Indian Oil Corp., which had been buying USA crude in the spot market, signed a term tender to purchase American oil for delivery every month between November and January, according to Finance Director Arun Kumar Sharma. Its previous estimate was at 10.79 million barrels per day.

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Prepare for $90 oil after sanctions against Iran take effect